Derivative Polling

Tracking changes in the Harris-Trump vote margin within pollsters

• How have the polls been changing?
• How does today's poll compare to the previous poll by the same pollster?

If you ever find yourself asking such questions, then this is for you. This tracker focusses on changes from one poll to the next within the same pollster; it makes no corrections for the biases of each pollster, so is best used not to predict the election but to track changes over time. Updated daily.

New! Aggregating the Poll Aggregators See below for a new plot that aggregates many of the major poll aggregators. These of course are not independent measures and use mainly the same raw polls, just adjusted in different ways. Again, this is best used to see the plausible range and track daily changes.

Tracking changes within pollsters

(Drag figure to see earlier dates; hover mouse to see exact values; click name to show only that pollster.)

Fine print: All polls are reduced to two-way, normalized to 100, and aggregated by pollster and week. These data include both head-to-head and multi-candidate polls, of both registered and likely voters. Since this isn't an election prediction but a tool for tracking changes in vote intention, within-pollster changes should remain meaningful whether a pollster polls 2-way and/or multi-way, or registered and/or likely voters, as long as they don't change their approach too often. Data generously shared by FiveThirtyEight at github.com/fivethirtyeight. Current data

Aggregating the Poll Aggregators

Nick Beauchamp
Comments or suggestions: n.beauchamp at northeastern.edu